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The SCEC Transition

Thomas H. Jordan
University of Southern California

The Southern California Earthquake Center is undergoing a major transition. After a decade as a successful NSF Science and Technology Center, SCEC is about to enter its last year of STC funding. However, there is a strong consensus among scientists, users of earthquake information, and the sponsoring agencies that SCEC should continue as a major center for earthquake science. Several recent developments have encouraged SCEC to renew its charter:

  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency has just released a study showing that about half the national earthquake risk, as measured in annualized economic loss, is concentrated in Southern California, with one-quarter in Los Angeles county alone (http://www.fema.gov/pdf/FEMA366.pdf).
  • The U.S. Geological Survey is seeking to expand its activities related to earthquake hazards and loss mitigation in Southern California, and it has reiterated its support of SCEC as a major partner in its scientific and public-outreach efforts.
  • The National Science Foundation is initiating its EarthScope program, which will employ new technologies for collecting massive data sets on the active tectonics of the western U.S (http://www.earthscope.org). NSF recognizes a need for center-based research that seeks to integrate these various types of data into a comprehensive understanding of active faulting.

 

Overview of the Proposal Process

At the SCEC annual meeting held on September 17-20 in Oxnard, California, the community ratified its intention to continue the Center through a joint proposal to the NSF and USGS. The proposal will be submitted on December 1, 2000, by the University of Southern California with Tom Jordan as the Principal Investigator and will include co-investigators from the participating SCEC institutions. A detailed proposal budget has not been finalized, but the request will be for at least $3.6M/yr over 5 years.

In addition to this base-funding request, the SCEC transition team is formulating proposals to other units within the NSF, as well as to other agencies. Plans are being developed for a partnership with several Information Technology organizations in Southern California, including the Information Sciences Institute (ISI) and the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC), to apply advanced IT infrastructure and methodologies to system-level earthquake science. The NSF Information Technology Research (ITR) program has recently announced a solicitation that specifically targets the applications of IT to science problems (http://www.nsf.gov/cgi-bin/getpub?nsf00126), and the intention is to submit a substantial SCEC/IT proposal to this program. The timing is excellent; preproposals are due on December 4, 2000, and full proposals on April 23, 2001.

Several other initiatives are in the early stages. A working group led by John Orcutt is considering the science opportunities related to the California Borderlands; it will be developing plans for the application of new marine exploration tools to the study of this important and poorly understood region, possibly as a component of NSF's MARGINS program. Discussions are also underway with NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory regarding a partnership to use Southern California as a natural laboratory for the integration of remote-sensing data into system-level models of crustal deformation.

 

Mission Statement and Science Goal

While the new center (SCEC2) will differ in significant ways from the old center (SCEC1) in terms of scientific focus and organization, SCEC will remain a regional center with a tripartite mission:

  • To gather knowledge about earthquakes in Southern California.
  • To integrate this knowledge into a comprehensive and predictive understanding of earthquake phenomena as a scientific basis for seismic hazard analysis.
  • To transfer this understanding to the larger Southern California community through communication with scientists, engineers, emergency managers, and community leaders, and through education of the general public.

SCEC's primary science goal, which follows directly from the second mission statement, is to develop a physics-based understanding of earthquake phenomena in Southern California from multi-disciplinary studies of

  • plate-boundary tectonics
  • history and behavior of active fault systems
  • dynamics of fault ruptures, and
  • wave propagation and strong ground motions in complex geologic structures


Science Plan

A successful NSF/USGS proposal will require strong plan for collaborative, project-oriented basic research that can pass rigorous peer review. At the annual meeting, six focus groups were convened to discuss elements of the science plan in key problem areas (Table 1). The preliminary reports of these groups have been drafted and are available to the interested participants. The SCEC2 science plan will continue to develop throughout the transition process, and the community is encouraged to communicate with the focus-group leaders and the P.I. with their suggestions regarding the substance of this plan.

Table 1. Problem-oriented focus groups convened at the SCEC Annual Meeting.
Problem Area Discussion Leaders
Plate-Boundary Tectonics Paul Segall/Brad Hager
Fault Systems Tom Rockwell/Charlie Sammis
Microscale Processes Jim Dieterich/Bernard Minster
Rupture Dynamics Tom Heaton/Steve Day
Wave Propagation Ralph Archuleta/John Vidale
Seismic Hazard Analysis Dave Jackson/Ned Field

 

Owing to the complexities of active faulting, achieving a physics-based understanding of earthquake phenomena requires a system-level approach. At the annual meeting, there was a broad consensus that a major role for SCEC is to provide the organizational framework for multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional research activities that will quantify how active faults behave in Southern California through the development of a community model framework. As used in this context, "community models" are open, documented and maintained resources available to SCEC investigators for the purposes of knowledge quantification and synthesis, hypothesis formulation and testing, data conciliation and assimilation, and prediction.

The problem areas that appear to be ripe for the construction of community models are diagrammed in Figure 1. The ability to erect and maintain community models will depend heavily on improvements to the IT infrastructure available to SCEC scientists, including computational algorithms for exploiting parallel computers and other hardware, access to distributed computing and collaborative environments, advanced methods for code development and sharing, software libraries, visualization tools, and data management capabilities. The strategies and tools for this type of collaborative research with be developed as part of the SCEC/IT partnership.

 

 

Figure 1. Diagram of major problem areas that will be foci for the development of SCEC community models.

 

Structure of the New Center

SCEC will continue to be governed by a Board of Directors comprising institutional representatives. This structure will recognize both core institutions, which are research organizations that have made a major, sustained commitment to SCEC objectives, and a much larger number of participating institutions, which are self-nominating through the involvement of individual scientists or groups in SCEC activities. SCEC1 currently has 9 core institutions (8 universities plus the USGS) and over 30 participating institutions, and its Board of Directors comprises one representative from each of the core institutions. In SCEC2, the core institutions will continue to have a seat on the Board; the Board will be expanded by adding at least two new core institutions as well as two Board-members-at-large drawn from the participating institutions, and the by-laws will be revised to place the day-to-day decision-making responsibilities in the hands of an Executive Committee of the Board.

 

Call for Information from Participating Institutions

SCEC is an organization open to any individuals and institutions that seek to collaborate on the science of earthquakes in Southern California. Individuals are urged to contact the P.I. directly of their interests in the SCEC2 proposal (e-mail address and phone number below). Institutions wishing to participate formally in SCEC2 should provide the following information:

1. Designation of a institutional representative, who accepts responsibility for coordinating institutional input to the proposal-writing efforts.

2. Material that can be used in the proposals to document the success of SCEC1, including an institutional roster of scientists, graduate students and postdocs who have been supported by SCEC1. Statements of SCEC-related science accomplishments illustrated with compelling graphics are especially welcome.

3. A roster of scientists who intend to participate in Center activities, and brief statements of their interests in SCEC2, keyed to disciplinary activities (seismology, tectonic geodesy, earthquake geology, etc.) and/or the problem areas listed in Table 1 and Figure 1.

Though not required, it would also be highly desirable to obtain a statement from a responsible official that details any institutional commitments that might be highlighted in the proposal as matching support. Examples are office and laboratory space, including access to major facilities, investigator time, including faculty release time, and any matching institutional funds. Such commitments by the participating institutions demonstrates that the Center will be a true partnership between academia and the major sponsoring agencies. It should be emphasized that any matching funds will remain under institutional control, ensuring that they will directly benefit the SCEC participants at that institution.

The time available to produce a compelling proposal is very short. Individuals and institutions should inform the P.I. of their desire to participate as soon as possible. Contributions to the science plan are welcome at any time. Institutional commitment packages should be received in the SCEC office by October 30, 2000.

 

To Contact the Principal Investigator for SCEC2:

Email: tjordan@usc.edu
Phone: 213-821-1237

 



Phone 213/740-5843
Fax 213/740-0011
e-mail: SCECinfo@usc.edu