SCEC Workshop on Earthquake Physics (June 21-23)

Conveners: Yehuda Ben-Zion and Charles Sammis, University of Southern California

We will hold a SCEC workshop on the physics governing the behavior of earthquakes and faults. The objective is to assess the current state of understanding of the earthquake process including nucleation of events, propagation and arrest of ruptures, spatio-temporal seismicity patterns, interactions between faults, and evolution of geometrical and other properties of fault systems. There are many approaches to such problems including continuum mechanics, statistical physics, laboratory experiments and field observation. By bringing together experts in these various approaches, we hope to compare results and identify key problems for future research.

This workshop is very timely as we work toward renewing SCEC as the new California Earthquake Research Center. A primary objective will be to produce a list of key problems and proposed methods of approach that can be incorporated into the renewal proposal and guide the centers strategic plan for earthquake physics research. A second objective will be to identify important directions and modes of interactions between the various SCEC/CERC groups. Examples that immediately come to mind include collaboration with the geology group in exploring effects of fault-zone structure on earthquake nucleation and growth and on the interpretation of spatio-temporal seismicity patterns . We will also explore ways of collaborating with the hazard modeling group by using insights from statistical physics to improve statistical hazard models, or by having a better understanding of strong ground motion. Other key questions, future promising research directions, and ways to improve hazard models should emerge from the workshop.

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Agenda

Day 1 (June 21) - Status of The Field

7:30-830, Breakfast

8:30-8:45, Tom Henyey - Introduction

8:50-9:35, Yehuda Ben-Zion - Overview and Recent Developments

9:45-10:30, Jim Rice - Continuum Mechanics Perspective

10:40-11:00, Coffee

11:00-11:45, Daniel Fisher, Statistical Physics Perspective

12:00-1:00, Lunch

1:05-1:50, Tom Rockwell, Field Studies Perspective

2:00-2:45, Greg Beroza, Seismic Waves Perspective

2:55-3:15, Coffee

3:15-4:00, Jim Dieterich, Lab Studies Perspective

4:10-4:55, Charlie Sammis, Prospects for Prediction

5:05-6:00, Discussion

Day 2 (June 22) - Short presentations and Sub Group discussions

7:00-8:00, Breakfast

8:00-8:15, Steve Wesnousky, "Plate Tectonics and the Gutenberg Richter Relationship"

8:15-8:30, Andrea Donnellan, "GPS Observations Of Fault Afterslip And Upper Crustal Deformation Following The Northridge Earthquake"

8:30-8:45, Yehuda Bock, "Geodetic Constraints On Energy Release And Crustal Rheology"

8:45-9:00, Jim Brune, "Insights On Rupture Physics From Foam Rubber Models"

9:00-9:15, Jean Carlson, "Friction Laws and Fault Models"

9:15-9:30, Bill Ellsworth, "Friction During Faulting: Inferring Rupture Dynamics From Source Kinematics"

9:30-9:45, Jim Brune, "Precarious Rock Constraints On Energy Release And Absolute Stress For Great Earthquakes"

9:45-10:00, Ruth Harris, "3D Dynamic Models Of Earthquakes Jumping Fault Segment Boundaries"

10:00-10:20, Coffee

10:20-10:45, Andy Michael, "Structural Constraints on Rupture Extent"

10:45-11:00, Raul Madariaga, "Dynamic Modelling Of Realistic Seismic Ruptures In 3D: The Origin Of Heterogeneity"

11:00-11:15, Bill Klein, "Nucleation And Metastability In Models Of Earthquake Faults"

11:15-11:30, Didier Sornette, "Recent Results On Rupture Predictions"

11:30-11:45, Don Turcotte, "A Multiplicative-cascade Model For Seismicity"

11:45-12:00, John Rundle, "Finding Patterns in Complex Earthquake Sequences: A Pattern Dynamics Approach"

12:05-12:15, Lynn Sykes, "Changes In The Frequency Of Moderate-size Earthquakes Preceding Large Shocks In California"

12:15-1:15, Lunch

1:30-3:30, Discussions of Sub Groups listed below.

1. Continuum Mechanics: Rice/Ben-Zion (co-chairs), Harris, Madariaga, Olsen, Cochard, Lyzenga

2. Statistical Physics: Fisher/Klein (co-chairs), Carlson, Rundle, Saleur, Shaw

3. Lab Studies: Lockner/Brune (co-chairs), Dieterich, Blanpied, Marone, Tullis

4. Seismic Waves: Beroza/Heaton (co-chairs), Lay, Ellsworth, Archuleta, Johnson, Spudich, Dreger, Teng

5. Field Studies: Wesnousky/Rockwell (co-chairs), Bock, Dolan, Segall, Donnellan, Parker

6. Prediction: Minster/Sammis (co-chairs), Knopoff, Eneva, Kagan, Sykes, Sornette, Michael, Turcotte

7. Implementation: Henyey/Jackson (co-chairs), Mori, Whitcomb, McRaney, Sims, Smith, Foxall, Petersen

3:30-3:50, Coffee

3:30-5:00, Combined discussion of Sub groups 1-3 and Sub Groups 4-6

5:00-6:00, Reports by co-chairs of Sub Groups 1-6 to the implementation group

Day 3 (June 23) - Wrap-up

7:30-8:30, Breakfast

8:30-9:30, Summary of day 2 reccomendations, Henyey/Jackson

9:30-10:30, Open discussion

10:30-10:50, Coffee,

10:50-11:30, Coninuing discussion

11:30-12:00, Resolution and end

12:00-1:00, Lunch