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Editorial Committee (tentative):

Bernard Minster, Tom Henyey, Dave Jackson, Jill Andrews, Ralph Archuleta, Jim Brune, Rob Clayton,

Tom Jordan, Kerry Sieh, Bob Smith

Issues for discussion:

• Purpose
• Time table: Draft by summer 2000, final by Xmas 2000?
• Organization

Proposed generic Chapter template (5-10 pages of text/chapter, not including figures, boxes, side-bars)

• What is the problem, how does it address the SCEC science goals
• What we have done in the first 10 years of SCEC
  • A.
  • B.
  • ...
  • Include pretty pictures, side-bars or boxes to explain concepts
  • Include E&O material if appropriate
• Where we are:
  • What role did SCEC play?
  • What progress was accomplished that would not have been without SCEC?
• Challenges for the future and a roadmap to address these challenges.

Miscellaneous items

• Establish an editorial committee
• Poll group leaders about the next couple of years
• Tell people what we have in mind and get feedback/input
• People indicated below are to animate discussion and to organize production and writing of chapters.
• Each chapter has a head honcho, and each subchapter has potential contributors.
• Level is Scientific American. Technical materials may be submitted in Appendices on CD-ROM.
• Color pictures desirable.

1. Preface (B. Minster, ed.)

2. The view from the Advisory Council
Tom Jordan?, Bob Smith

3. Introduction (B. Minster, ed.)

3.1 The role and purpose of this document
This is the legacy of the first decade of SCEC research

3.2 A short history of SCEC
Keiiti Aki, Tom Henyey, Dave Jackson, Bernard Minster

3.3 The role of group science in earthquake research
Problem selection
Data collection
Model construction
The role of consensus building
Multi-disciplinary approaches to science

3.4 The place of SCEC within new initiatives such as Earthscope

1. Seismotectonic Framework of southern California (T. Henyey, ed.)

1.1 Background: see e.g. "putting down roots…"
Kerry Sieh, Tom Henyey., Jill Andrews., Tom Rockwell., Egill Hauksson, Steve Wesnousky

1.2 Faults

1.2.1 Various SoCal faulting regimes, active inactive

1.2.2 Blind thrusts
John Shaw

2. Regional Crustal Deformation Model (Duncan Agnew, ed.)

2.1 Using geodesy and strain measurements
Quick summary of various technologies and techniques.
How this evolved rather quickly over the lifetime of SCEC

2.2 The southern California velocity model
Southern California Deformation Model, with time dependence and descriptive paper. Calculations for version 3 are in progress; no organization yet to write summary paper.

2.3 New techniques on the horizon
Ken Hudnut, Duncan Agnew, Dave Jackson, Yehuda Bock, Brad Hager

3. Earthquake history (Kerry Sieh, ed.)

3.1 Southern California paleoseismology

3.1.1 San Andreas fault:
Kerry Sieh

3.1.2 LA Basin:
J. Dolan, Scott Lindwall, Shaw

3.1.3 Ventura/Santa Barbara Basin;
E. Keller

3.2 Historical seismicity
L. Jones/D.Jackson

4. Crustal Velocity and Density Models (E. Hauksson, ed.)

4.1 Southern California Seismic Velocity and Density Model;
Working group has made good progress and a version will be presented at the annual meeting.
Rob Clayton, Harold Magistrale, Rob Graves, Egill Hauksson

4.2 LARSE
Rob Clayton, G. Fuis, Egill Hauksson

5. Wave propagation simulations in realistic earth structures (R. Archuleta, ed.)

5.1 Wave propagation in 3D Basins
Ralph Archuleta, Kim Olsen, Steve Day

5.2 Calculating Strong ground motions

5.2.1 Basin effects

5.2.2 Near source effects

5.2.3 Site effects

5.2.4 Attenuation relation

5.2.5 Use of downhole instrumentation

5.2.6 Nonlinear effects

A report on theoretical and empirical methods to model ground motion from large earthquakes. Group B has included some relevant items in its 1999 plan, and Steve Day is interested in pursuing this, but it has not reached "Working Group" status at present.
Steve Day, John Anderson

5.3 Earthquake scenarios
Kim Olsen, Ralph Archuleta, Rob Graves

6. Source physics (S. Day, ed.)

6.1 Sources: Imaging studies

6.1.1 Direct Fault imaging
Gary Fuis, Dave Okaya, Tom Henyey

6.1.2 Indirect Fault imaging
John Shaw, Peter Shearer, Nano Seeber

6.1.3 Trapped waves and fault geometry
Yehuda Ben-Zion, Y. Li, John Vidale

6.2 Sources: Constraints from Lab. and field evidence

6.2.1 Rocks and foam rubber

6.2.2 Fault-normal displacements

6.2.3 Precarious rocks
Jim Brune, Jim Dieterich

6.3 Sources: Theoretical studies

6.3.1 Single fault simulations and Rupture dynamics
Jim Rice, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Steve Day, Ruth Harris

6.3.2 Fault segment interactions
Steve Day, Ruth Harris, Steve Ward

6.4 Micro-Macro scale physics:
Leon Knopoff, Charlie Sammis, John Rundle

7. The SCEC earthquakes (Lucille Jones, ed.)

7.1 Background Seismicity
Hauksson, Seeber, Shearer

7.2 Landers:
Tom Rockwell and Cie (mapping, GPS, aftershoscks, fault structure etc)

7.3 Northridge:
Andrea Donnellan, Paul Davis, and Cie

8. Stress modeling and stress transfer (Ross Stein, ed.)

8.1 The basic theory
Source models and Earth structure models
Rheologies
Coulomb stress

8.2 The role of stress transfer simulations
Changes in load conditions
Potential effects on future seismicity

8.3 The tools we now have
Software packages and workshops
Ross Stein, Lynn Sykes, Jishu Deng

9 Estimating earthquake potential (Dave Jackson, ed.)

9.1 Earthquake potential
A report on earthquake potential in southern California (WG2K), multi-models (seismicity, fault slip, strain rate); funded by SCEC in 1999, first workshop to be in September. Should include update on fault slip rate table, self consistent geometries of blind thrusts, and earthquake catalog with uncertainties.
Ned Field, Dave Jackson, Steve Ward, Jim Dolan

9.2 An earthquake deficit in California?
Ned Field, Dave Jackson, Ross Stein, Tom Hanks, L. Jones

9.3 Seismicity simulations

9.4 Intermediate-term prediction
Sammis, Minster, others?

10 Reaching out to the community (Jill Andrews, ed.)

10.1 EOT
Try to highlight activities with fancy graphics and/or photographs.
Jill Andrews

11 THE MASTER MODEL (phase 5) (Ned Field, ed.)

This is the final phase, at least in the current concept.
Should this be prospective chapter, since this will not be done by the time we need to use the document
Do we have a plan?

APPENDIX: Contents of CD-ROM

A.1 CD-ROM: Phase1 and Phase 2
Summarize the various phases. Describe process, and describe progression and improvements.

A2 CD-ROM: Phase 3 (site effects);
nearly done, to be published in BSSA.
Recommendation: continue, of course.
Ned Field

A.3 CD-ROM: Infrastructure/facilities

15.3.1 Seismology:

Data Center
Coordination with UCB
SCSN, Trinet, other networks (ANZA)
Use in EOT
Clayton

15.3.2 Geodesy:

Campaign data sets
PGGA and then SCIGN
Strainmeters (PFO)
Orbits and other data products. EOT aspects
Shen, Jackson, Agnew, Bock

A.4 CD-ROM: SCEC Newsletters

A.5 CD-ROM: SCEC workshops

A.6 CD-ROM: SCEC publications

EXTRAS... EXTRAS...

1. BOXES or side-bars, to be scattered among chapters

Possible Examples...we need input and suggestions!
Characteristic earthquakes
Fault segmentation
Earthquake deficit?
Trapped waves
Blind faults
GPS measurements
Strain measurements
Fault trenching
Nonlinear wave propagation
Borehole instrumentation
Focusing and defocusing
Precarious rocks
Various EOT boxes
Fault zone rheology
Coulomb stress

2. Figures

Possible Examples...we need input and suggestions!
SCEC Velocity model
Southern California faults
Some trench walls?
SCEC crustal model
Cross section
Seismicity
Landers
Northridge
Networks
Earthquake Hazards (phase x)
Stress transfer, stress shadows
LARSE
Wave propagation (CD-ROM could have an animation!)

Etc....

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